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Dynamo de Douala vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
3 – 1
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
7/18/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dynamo de Douala48%
×Draw27%
Lion Blessé26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.43
Lion Blessé
0.97

Dynamo de Douala creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
74%
Dynamo de Douala or Lion Blessé
73%
Draw or Lion Blessé
52%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
23%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
76%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
42%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
17%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
62%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
25%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
65%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
48%
level
27%
Lion Blessé scores more
26%

Dynamo de Douala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo de Douala vs Lion Blessé

Dynamo de Douala beat Lion Blessé 3-1 in Elite Two on July 18, 2021.