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Dynamo de Douala vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
3/11/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dynamo de Douala56%
×Draw24%
Leopard de Douala20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.68
Leopard de Douala
0.88

Dynamo de Douala creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
80%
Dynamo de Douala or Leopard de Douala
76%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
44%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
31%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
50%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
24%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
59%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
22%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
74%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
56%
level
24%
Leopard de Douala scores more
20%

Dynamo de Douala at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Dynamo de Douala 2–1 Leopard de Douala

Dynamo de Douala beat Leopard de Douala 2-1 in Elite Two on March 11, 2023.