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Dynamo de Douala vs Bamboutos — Elite One 2019

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bamboutos
Bamboutos
12/22/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 4Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dynamo de Douala40%
×Draw29%
Bamboutos31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.19
Bamboutos
1.01

Dynamo de Douala creates 18% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.33
Bamboutos
1.08

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
0.93
Bamboutos
1.05

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Bamboutos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Bamboutos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
69%
Dynamo de Douala or Bamboutos
71%
Draw or Bamboutos
60%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
17%
Bamboutos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
12%
Bamboutos 1+ goals
64%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
27%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
56%
Bamboutos (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 42 matches

Bamboutos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.33 + Bamboutos defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bamboutos attack 1.08 + Dynamo de Douala defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
40%
level
29%
Bamboutos scores more
31%

Dynamo de Douala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo de Douala vs Bamboutos

Dynamo de Douala and Bamboutos drew 0-0 in Elite One on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mbappe Leppe in Douala.