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Dynamo de Douala vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite Two 2020

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
4/5/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dynamo de Douala39%
×Draw25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.45
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.53
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.64

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.11
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.36

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
64%
Dynamo de Douala or Aigle Royal de Moungo
75%
Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo
61%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
18%
Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
42%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
18%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
75%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
40%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
52%
Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.64 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
39%
level
25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
36%

Dynamo de Douala at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Dynamo de Douala 1–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo

Dynamo de Douala and Aigle Royal de Moungo drew 1-1 in Elite Two on April 5, 2023.