Aigle Royal de Moungo 1–0 Dynamo de Douala

Aigle Royal de Moungo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo de Douala

1/11/2025

Elite One · Round 7Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo31%

×Draw29%

Dynamo de Douala41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle Royal de MoungoExpected goals in this matchDynamo de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.21

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.01

Dynamo de Douala

1.21

Dynamo de Douala creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

1.34

1.07

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

0.89

Dynamo de Douala

1.34

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.07

Dynamo de Douala

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Dynamo de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw

59%

Aigle Royal de Moungo or Dynamo de Douala

71%

Draw or Dynamo de Douala

69%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+

11%

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals

64%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals

27%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals

8%

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)

43%

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more

31%

level

29%

Dynamo de Douala scores more

41%

Dynamo de Douala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff