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Dynamo Abomey vs Tanéka — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
3 – 0
Tanéka
Tanéka
4/24/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 1Stade Za-Kpota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dynamo Abomey53%
×Draw30%
Tanéka17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.24
Tanéka
0.56

Dynamo Abomey creates 121% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.40
Tanéka
0.38

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.75
Tanéka
1.08

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
Tanéka+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

Tanéka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
83%
Dynamo Abomey or Tanéka
70%
Draw or Tanéka
47%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
25%
Tanéka wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
71%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
35%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
13%
Tanéka 1+ goals
43%
Tanéka 2+ goals
11%
Tanéka 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
76%
Tanéka (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 107 matches

Tanéka away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + Tanéka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tanéka attack 0.38 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
53%
level
30%
Tanéka scores more
17%

Dynamo Abomey at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Abomey vs Tanéka

Dynamo Abomey beat Tanéka 3-0 in Championnat National on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Za-Kpota in Za-Kpota.