Dynamo Abomey 2–0 Réal Sport: Result & Stats

Dynamo Abomey

FT

2 – 0

Réal Sport

12/10/2023

Championnat National · Round 11Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Dynamo Abomey53%

×Draw29%

Réal Sport17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo AbomeyExpected goals in this matchRéal Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.59

Dynamo Abomey

1.28

Réal Sport

0.59

Dynamo Abomey creates 117% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 82 away

1.40

creates per match

0.46

0.73

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey

1.40

Réal Sport

0.46

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey

0.73

Réal Sport

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

Réal Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw

83%

Dynamo Abomey or Réal Sport

71%

Draw or Réal Sport

47%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+

25%

Réal Sport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals

72%

Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals

37%

Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals

14%

Réal Sport 1+ goals

45%

Réal Sport 2+ goals

12%

Réal Sport 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)

76%

Réal Sport (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 106 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more

53%

level

29%

Réal Sport scores more

17%

Dynamo Abomey at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff