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Dynamo Abomey vs Hodio — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
1 – 0
Hodio
Hodio
1/14/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 18Stade Omnisport d'Abomey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Dynamo Abomey45%
×Draw30%
Hodio24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.19
Hodio
0.79

Dynamo Abomey creates 51% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 93 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.40
Hodio
0.85

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.73
Hodio
0.98

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
Hodio+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

Hodio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
76%
Dynamo Abomey or Hodio
70%
Draw or Hodio
55%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
20%
Hodio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
12%
Hodio 1+ goals
55%
Hodio 2+ goals
19%
Hodio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
65%
Hodio (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 106 matches

Hodio away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + Hodio defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hodio attack 0.85 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
45%
level
30%
Hodio scores more
24%

Dynamo Abomey at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Abomey 1–0 Hodio

Dynamo Abomey beat Hodio 1-0 in Championnat National on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport d'Abomey in Abomey.