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Dynamo Abomey vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
10/27/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 5Stade Municipal de Goho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dynamo Abomey54%
×Draw27%
Dynamo Unacob20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.46
Dynamo Unacob
0.77

Dynamo Abomey creates 90% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.40
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.73
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
80%
Dynamo Abomey or Dynamo Unacob
73%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
46%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
27%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
43%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
18%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
54%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
18%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
73%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 106 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
54%
level
27%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
20%

Dynamo Abomey at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Abomey vs Dynamo Unacob

Dynamo Abomey beat Dynamo Unacob 3-1 in Championnat National on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Goho in Abomey.