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Dynamo Abomey vs Bani Gansè — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
2 – 2
Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
5/19/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 17Stade Municipal de Goho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Dynamo Abomey48%
×Draw30%
Bani Gansè22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.23
Bani Gansè
0.73

Dynamo Abomey creates 68% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.40
Bani Gansè
0.74

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.73
Bani Gansè
1.07

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

Bani Gansè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
78%
Dynamo Abomey or Bani Gansè
70%
Draw or Bani Gansè
52%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
22%
Bani Gansè wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
71%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
35%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
13%
Bani Gansè 1+ goals
52%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
17%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
69%
Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 106 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
48%
level
30%
Bani Gansè scores more
22%

Dynamo Abomey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Abomey 2–2 Bani Gansè

Dynamo Abomey and Bani Gansè drew 2-2 in Championnat National on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Goho in Abomey.