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Dynamo Abomey vs AS Cotonou — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
3 – 1
AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
3/23/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 9Stade Municipal de Goho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Dynamo Abomey44%
×Draw30%
AS Cotonou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.17
AS Cotonou
0.80

Dynamo Abomey creates 46% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 113 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.40
AS Cotonou
0.88

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.73
AS Cotonou
0.95

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

AS Cotonou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
75%
Dynamo Abomey or AS Cotonou
70%
Draw or AS Cotonou
56%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
19%
AS Cotonou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
69%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
11%
AS Cotonou 1+ goals
55%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
19%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
64%
AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 106 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.40 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
44%
level
30%
AS Cotonou scores more
25%

Dynamo Abomey at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Abomey 3–1 AS Cotonou

Dynamo Abomey beat AS Cotonou 3-1 in Championnat National on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Goho in Abomey.