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Dynamique Djougou vs USB — Championnat National 2019

Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
FT
1 – 1
USB
USB
6/8/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 17Stade Municipal de Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamique Djougou36%
×Draw30%
USB35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamique Djougou
1.06
USB
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamique Djougou
0.78
USB
0.71

allows per match

Dynamique Djougou
1.37
USB
1.35

finishing

Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par
USB+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamique Djougou ↓

USB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamique Djougou or draw
65%
Dynamique Djougou or USB
70%
Draw or USB
64%

Winning margin

Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
14%
USB wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
65%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
29%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
9%
USB 1+ goals
65%
USB 2+ goals
28%
USB 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
51%
USB (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamique Djougou at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

USB away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.78 + USB defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

USB attack 0.71 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dynamique Djougou scores more
36%
level
30%
USB scores more
35%

Dynamique Djougou at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dynamique Djougou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamique Djougou 1–1 USB

Dynamique Djougou and USB drew 1-1 in Championnat National on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Djougou in Djougou.