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Dynamique Djougou vs Tukunnin — Championnat National 2019

Dynamique Djougou
Dynamique Djougou
FT
0 – 1
Tukunnin
Tukunnin
1/6/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 16Stade Atchoukouma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dynamique Djougou31%
×Draw30%
Tukunnin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamique Djougou
0.95
Tukunnin
1.08

Tukunnin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

creates per match

Dynamique Djougou
0.78
Tukunnin
0.80

allows per match

Dynamique Djougou
1.37
Tukunnin
1.13

finishing

Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par
Tukunnin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamique Djougou ↓

Tukunnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamique Djougou or draw
62%
Dynamique Djougou or Tukunnin
70%
Draw or Tukunnin
69%

Winning margin

Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+
11%
Tukunnin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals
61%
Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals
25%
Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals
7%
Tukunnin 1+ goals
66%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
29%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)
45%
Tukunnin (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamique Djougou at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Tukunnin away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.78 + Tukunnin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Tukunnin attack 0.80 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dynamique Djougou scores more
31%
level
30%
Tukunnin scores more
38%

Tukunnin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamique Djougou vs Tukunnin

Tukunnin beat Dynamique Djougou 1-0 in Championnat National on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Atchoukouma in Djougou.