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Dynamic Herb Cebu vs Manila Montet — PFL 2020

Dynamic Herb Cebu
Dynamic Herb Cebu
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Manila Montet
Manila Montet
6/23/2024PFLPFL · Round 9Dynamic Herb-Borromeo Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu97%
×Draw2%
Manila Montet1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamic Herb Cebu
5.18
Manila Montet
0.42

Dynamic Herb Cebu creates 1133% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu
3.11
Manila Montet
0.00

allows per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu
0.84
Manila Montet
7.25

finishing

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par
Manila Montet+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamic Herb Cebu ↓

Manila Montet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
74%26%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Dynamic Herb Cebu or draw
99%
Dynamic Herb Cebu or Manila Montet
98%
Draw or Manila Montet
3%

Winning margin

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+
90%
Manila Montet wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals
99%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals
95%
Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals
85%
Manila Montet 1+ goals
34%
Manila Montet 2+ goals
7%
Manila Montet 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)
99%
Manila Montet (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamic Herb Cebu at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

Manila Montet away — creates 0.00, concedes 7.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 3.11 + Manila Montet defence 7.25 → ÷2 → 5.18

Manila Montet attack 0.00 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more
97%
level
2%
Manila Montet scores more
1%

Dynamic Herb Cebu at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Dynamic Herb Cebu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Dynamic Herb Cebu 7–0 Manila Montet

Dynamic Herb Cebu beat Manila Montet 7-0 in PFL on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Dynamic Herb-Borromeo Sports Complex in Talisay.