Dynamic Herb Cebu 2–1 Ceres: Result & Stats | PFL

Dynamic Herb Cebu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ceres

5/25/2024

PFL · Round 6Dynamic Herb-Borromeo Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu30%

×Draw18%

Ceres51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamic Herb CebuExpected goals in this matchCeres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.77

Dynamic Herb Cebu

2.13

Ceres

2.77

Ceres creates 30% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

3.11

creates per match

4.69

0.84

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu

3.11

Ceres

4.69

allows per match

Dynamic Herb Cebu

0.84

Ceres

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamic Herb Cebu ↓

Ceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Dynamic Herb Cebu or draw

49%

Dynamic Herb Cebu or Ceres

82%

Draw or Ceres

70%

Winning margin

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+

16%

Ceres wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals

88%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals

63%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals

35%

Ceres 1+ goals

94%

Ceres 2+ goals

76%

Ceres 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)

37%

Ceres (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamic Herb Cebu at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.84 · 44 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 3.11 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ceres attack 4.69 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more

30%

level

18%

Ceres scores more

51%

Ceres at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff