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Dvůr Králové vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
PST
15:00
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 30Stadion Pod Hankovým domem (Dvůr Králové nad Labem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dvůr Králové67%
×Draw18%
Polaban Nymburk14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dvůr Králové
2.31
Polaban Nymburk
0.97

Dvůr Králové creates 138% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dvůr Králové
1.71
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Dvůr Králové
1.61
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dvůr Králové ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dvůr Králové or draw
86%
Dvůr Králové or Polaban Nymburk
82%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
33%

Winning margin

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
44%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
90%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
67%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
40%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
62%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
25%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
82%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dvůr Králové at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dvůr Králové attack 1.71 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.31

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Dvůr Králové defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dvůr Králové scores more
67%
level
18%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
14%

Dvůr Králové at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dvůr Králové face Polaban Nymburk (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Dvůr Králové hosting Polaban Nymburk. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dvůr Králové host Polaban Nymburk at Stadion Pod Hankovým domem (Dvůr Králové nad Labem).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.