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Dvůr Králové vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
FT
5 – 0
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
8/11/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 1Stadion Pod Hankovým domem (Dvůr Králové nad Labem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Dvůr Králové57%
×Draw21%
Horky nad Jizerou22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dvůr Králové
2.17
Horky nad Jizerou
1.29

Dvůr Králové creates 68% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dvůr Králové
1.71
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Dvůr Králové
1.61
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dvůr Králové ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dvůr Králové or draw
78%
Dvůr Králové or Horky nad Jizerou
79%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
43%

Winning margin

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
35%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
89%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
64%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
36%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
72%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
37%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
72%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dvůr Králové at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dvůr Králové attack 1.71 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.17

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Dvůr Králové defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dvůr Králové scores more
57%
level
21%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
22%

Dvůr Králové at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dvůr Králové vs Horky nad Jizerou

Dvůr Králové beat Horky nad Jizerou 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Hankovým domem (Dvůr Králové nad Labem).