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Dvůr Králové vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
6/11/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 30Stadion Pod Hankovým domem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dvůr Králové46%
×Draw23%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dvůr Králové
1.82
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.46

Dvůr Králové creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dvůr Králové
1.71
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Dvůr Králové
1.61
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dvůr Králové ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dvůr Králové or draw
69%
Dvůr Králové or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
77%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
54%

Winning margin

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
25%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
84%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
54%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
27%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
77%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
43%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
60%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dvůr Králové at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dvůr Králové attack 1.71 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Dvůr Králové defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dvůr Králové scores more
46%
level
23%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
31%

Dvůr Králové at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dvůr Králové vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Cidlina Novy Bydzov beat Dvůr Králové 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Hankovým domem in Dvůr Králové nad Labem.