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DVS 33 Ermelo vs SC Genemuiden — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
10/5/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 8Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo45%
×Draw24%
SC Genemuiden31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.70
SC Genemuiden
1.36

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 51 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
SC Genemuiden
1.65

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
SC Genemuiden
1.29

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

SC Genemuiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
69%
DVS 33 Ermelo or SC Genemuiden
76%
Draw or SC Genemuiden
55%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
24%
SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
82%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
51%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
24%
SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
74%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
39%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
60%
SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

SC Genemuiden away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

SC Genemuiden attack 1.65 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
45%
level
24%
SC Genemuiden scores more
31%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: DVS 33 Ermelo 2–0 SC Genemuiden

DVS 33 Ermelo beat SC Genemuiden 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.