DVS 33 Ermelo 0–1 Rijnvogels: Result & Stats

DVS 33 Ermelo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rijnvogels

4/22/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 30Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo50%

×Draw22%

Rijnvogels28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DVS 33 ErmeloExpected goals in this matchRijnvogels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.48

DVS 33 Ermelo

2.04

Rijnvogels

1.48

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 34 away

2.11

creates per match

1.88

1.07

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo

2.11

Rijnvogels

1.88

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.07

Rijnvogels

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Rijnvogels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw

72%

DVS 33 Ermelo or Rijnvogels

78%

Draw or Rijnvogels

50%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+

29%

Rijnvogels wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals

87%

DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals

60%

DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals

33%

Rijnvogels 1+ goals

77%

Rijnvogels 2+ goals

43%

Rijnvogels 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)

64%

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Rijnvogels defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rijnvogels attack 1.88 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more

50%

level

22%

Rijnvogels scores more

28%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff