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DVS 33 Ermelo vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
4 – 1
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
1/11/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 17Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 (Ermelo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo60%
×Draw20%
HSV ODIN 5920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.27
HSV ODIN 59
1.25

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 82% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 46 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
80%
DVS 33 Ermelo or HSV ODIN 59
80%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
40%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
38%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
90%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
66%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
39%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
71%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
36%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
75%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.27

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
60%
level
20%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
20%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DVS 33 Ermelo vs HSV ODIN 59

DVS 33 Ermelo beat HSV ODIN 59 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 (Ermelo).