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DVS 33 Ermelo vs Dovo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dovo
Dovo
4/20/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 30Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo55%
×Draw22%
Dovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.90
Dovo
1.15

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
Dovo
1.23

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
Dovo
1.70

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
Dovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Dovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
77%
DVS 33 Ermelo or Dovo
78%
Draw or Dovo
45%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
31%
Dovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
85%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
56%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
29%
Dovo 1+ goals
68%
Dovo 2+ goals
32%
Dovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
71%
Dovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Dovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.70 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Dovo defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dovo attack 1.23 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
55%
level
22%
Dovo scores more
23%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DVS 33 Ermelo vs Dovo

DVS 33 Ermelo and Dovo drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.