Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

DVS 33 Ermelo vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
DEM
DEM
11/25/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 14Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo59%
×Draw20%
DEM20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.15
DEM
1.17

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 34 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
DEM
1.26

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
DEM
2.18

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
80%
DVS 33 Ermelo or DEM
80%
Draw or DEM
41%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
37%
DEM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
88%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
63%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
36%
DEM 1+ goals
69%
DEM 2+ goals
33%
DEM 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
75%
DEM (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

DEM away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + DEM defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.15

DEM attack 1.26 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
59%
level
20%
DEM scores more
20%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DVS 33 Ermelo vs DEM

DVS 33 Ermelo beat DEM 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.