Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

DVS 33 Ermelo vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
4/19/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 30Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo60%
×Draw21%
Ajax Amateurs19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.08
Ajax Amateurs
1.10

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 49 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
81%
DVS 33 Ermelo or Ajax Amateurs
79%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
40%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
36%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
87%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
61%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
34%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
67%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
30%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
75%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
60%
level
21%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
19%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: DVS 33 Ermelo 4–2 Ajax Amateurs

DVS 33 Ermelo beat Ajax Amateurs 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.