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Dutch Lions vs Hawks — GFA League 2020

Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hawks
Hawks
5/8/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dutch Lions42%
×Draw29%
Hawks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dutch Lions
1.23
Hawks
0.97

Dutch Lions creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dutch Lions
1.30
Hawks
0.86

allows per match

Dutch Lions
1.07
Hawks
1.15

finishing

Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dutch Lions ↓

Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dutch Lions or draw
71%
Dutch Lions or Hawks
71%
Draw or Hawks
58%

Winning margin

Dutch Lions wins by 2+
19%
Hawks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dutch Lions 1+ goals
71%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
35%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
13%
Hawks 1+ goals
62%
Hawks 2+ goals
25%
Hawks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
59%
Hawks (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Hawks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dutch Lions attack 1.30 + Hawks defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hawks attack 0.86 + Dutch Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dutch Lions scores more
42%
level
29%
Hawks scores more
29%

Dutch Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dutch Lions vs Hawks

Dutch Lions and Hawks drew 1-1 in GFA League on May 8, 2025.