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Dutch Lions vs Bombada — GFA League 2020

Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bombada
Bombada
12/20/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dutch Lions44%
×Draw28%
Bombada28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dutch Lions
1.29
Bombada
0.98

Dutch Lions creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dutch Lions
1.30
Bombada
0.89

allows per match

Dutch Lions
1.07
Bombada
1.29

finishing

Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Bombada+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dutch Lions ↓

Bombada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dutch Lions or draw
72%
Dutch Lions or Bombada
72%
Draw or Bombada
56%

Winning margin

Dutch Lions wins by 2+
20%
Bombada wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dutch Lions 1+ goals
72%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
37%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
14%
Bombada 1+ goals
62%
Bombada 2+ goals
26%
Bombada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
61%
Bombada (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Bombada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dutch Lions attack 1.30 + Bombada defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bombada attack 0.89 + Dutch Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dutch Lions scores more
44%
level
28%
Bombada scores more
28%

Dutch Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Dutch Lions 2–2 Bombada

Dutch Lions and Bombada drew 2-2 in GFA League on December 20, 2024.