Dussindale & Hellesdon 3–4 Needham Market W

Dussindale & Hellesdon

3 – 4

Needham Market W

11/12/2023

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dussindale & Hellesdon54%

×Draw18%

Needham Market W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dussindale & HellesdonExpected goals in this matchNeedham Market W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

2.17

Dussindale & Hellesdon

3.00

Needham Market W

2.17

Dussindale & Hellesdon creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Dussindale & Hellesdon

2.67

Needham Market W

1.33

allows per match

Dussindale & Hellesdon

3.00

Needham Market W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dussindale & Hellesdon+0.00on par

Needham Market W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dussindale & Hellesdon ↓

Needham Market W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Dussindale & Hellesdon or draw

72%

Dussindale & Hellesdon or Needham Market W

82%

Draw or Needham Market W

46%

Winning margin

Dussindale & Hellesdon wins by 2+

36%

Needham Market W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dussindale & Hellesdon 1+ goals

95%

Dussindale & Hellesdon 2+ goals

79%

Dussindale & Hellesdon 3+ goals

56%

Needham Market W 1+ goals

89%

Needham Market W 2+ goals

64%

Needham Market W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Dussindale & Hellesdon (draw refunded)

66%

Needham Market W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dussindale & Hellesdon at home — creates 2.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Needham Market W away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dussindale & Hellesdon attack 2.67 + Needham Market W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.00

Needham Market W attack 1.33 + Dussindale & Hellesdon defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dussindale & Hellesdon scores more

54%

level

18%

Needham Market W scores more

28%

Dussindale & Hellesdon at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dussindale & Hellesdon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff