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Dushanbe-83 vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
FT
3 – 0
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
8/16/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dushanbe-8332%
×Draw25%
Regar-TadAZ43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dushanbe-83
1.26
Regar-TadAZ
1.51

Regar-TadAZ creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 89 away

creates per match

Dushanbe-83
1.17
Regar-TadAZ
1.15

allows per match

Dushanbe-83
1.87
Regar-TadAZ
1.35

finishing

Dushanbe-83+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dushanbe-83 ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dushanbe-83 or draw
57%
Dushanbe-83 or Regar-TadAZ
75%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
68%

Winning margin

Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
13%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
72%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
36%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
13%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
78%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
44%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
42%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dushanbe-83 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dushanbe-83 attack 1.17 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.15 + Dushanbe-83 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dushanbe-83 scores more
32%
level
25%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
43%

Regar-TadAZ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Dushanbe-83 3–0 Regar-TadAZ

Dushanbe-83 beat Regar-TadAZ 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat in Vahdat.