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Dushanbe-83 vs Ravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
FT
4 – 2
Ravshan
Ravshan
5/1/2021Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 5Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dushanbe-8331%
×Draw26%
Ravshan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dushanbe-83
1.21
Ravshan
1.49

Ravshan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dushanbe-83
1.17
Ravshan
1.11

allows per match

Dushanbe-83
1.87
Ravshan
1.26

finishing

Dushanbe-83+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dushanbe-83 ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dushanbe-83 or draw
56%
Dushanbe-83 or Ravshan
74%
Draw or Ravshan
69%

Winning margin

Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
13%
Ravshan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
70%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
34%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
12%
Ravshan 1+ goals
77%
Ravshan 2+ goals
44%
Ravshan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
41%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dushanbe-83 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dushanbe-83 attack 1.17 + Ravshan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ravshan attack 1.11 + Dushanbe-83 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dushanbe-83 scores more
31%
level
26%
Ravshan scores more
44%

Ravshan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Dushanbe-83 4–2 Ravshan

Dushanbe-83 beat Ravshan 4-2 in Vysshaya Liga on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.