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Dushanbe-83 vs Eskhata — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
FT
1 – 2
Eskhata
Eskhata
9/22/2021Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 20Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dushanbe-8335%
×Draw24%
Eskhata41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dushanbe-83
1.50
Eskhata
1.65

Eskhata creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 63 away

creates per match

Dushanbe-83
1.17
Eskhata
1.43

allows per match

Dushanbe-83
1.87
Eskhata
1.83

finishing

Dushanbe-83+0.00on par
Eskhata+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dushanbe-83 ↓

Eskhata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dushanbe-83 or draw
59%
Dushanbe-83 or Eskhata
76%
Draw or Eskhata
65%

Winning margin

Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
17%
Eskhata wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
78%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
44%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
19%
Eskhata 1+ goals
81%
Eskhata 2+ goals
49%
Eskhata 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
46%
Eskhata (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dushanbe-83 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Eskhata away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.83 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dushanbe-83 attack 1.17 + Eskhata defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Eskhata attack 1.43 + Dushanbe-83 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dushanbe-83 scores more
35%
level
24%
Eskhata scores more
41%

Eskhata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eskhata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Dushanbe-83 1–2 Eskhata

Eskhata beat Dushanbe-83 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Gissar.