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Duros del Balon vs El Nacional — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
J. Quinonez 75'
6/23/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 17Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Duros del Balon44%
×Draw28%
El Nacional28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duros del Balon
1.31
El Nacional
0.98

Duros del Balon creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Duros del Balon
1.18
El Nacional
0.93

allows per match

Duros del Balon
1.02
El Nacional
1.44

finishing

Duros del Balon+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duros del Balon ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Duros del Balon or draw
72%
Duros del Balon or El Nacional
72%
Draw or El Nacional
56%

Winning margin

Duros del Balon wins by 2+
20%
El Nacional wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Duros del Balon 1+ goals
73%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
38%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
14%
El Nacional 1+ goals
62%
El Nacional 2+ goals
26%
El Nacional 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
61%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duros del Balon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

El Nacional away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duros del Balon attack 1.18 + El Nacional defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

El Nacional attack 0.93 + Duros del Balon defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Duros del Balon scores more
44%
level
28%
El Nacional scores more
28%

Duros del Balon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Duros del Balon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
J. Quinonez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Duros del Balon 1–0 El Nacional

Duros del Balon beat El Nacional 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 23, 2021.

Goals: J. Quinonez (75').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.