Duros del Balon 2–1 America de Quito

Duros del Balon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

America de Quito

7/15/2021

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Duros del Balon40%

×Draw28%

America de Quito31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Duros del BalonExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Duros del Balon

1.23

America de Quito

1.04

Duros del Balon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

1.18

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Duros del Balon

1.18

America de Quito

1.05

allows per match

Duros del Balon

1.02

America de Quito

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Duros del Balon+0.00on par

America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duros del Balon ↓

America de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Duros del Balon or draw

69%

Duros del Balon or America de Quito

72%

Draw or America de Quito

60%

Winning margin

Duros del Balon wins by 2+

18%

America de Quito wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Duros del Balon 1+ goals

71%

Duros del Balon 2+ goals

35%

Duros del Balon 3+ goals

13%

America de Quito 1+ goals

65%

America de Quito 2+ goals

28%

America de Quito 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Duros del Balon (draw refunded)

57%

America de Quito (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duros del Balon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duros del Balon attack 1.18 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Duros del Balon defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Duros del Balon scores more

40%

level

28%

America de Quito scores more

31%

Duros del Balon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Duros del Balon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff