Durham W 0–1 Sheffield United W: Result & Stats

Durham W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield United W

12/14/2025

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundMaiden Castle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Durham W38%

×Draw22%

Sheffield United W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Durham WExpected goals in this matchSheffield United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.81

Durham W

1.77

Sheffield United W

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

2.22

1.40

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Durham W

1.20

Sheffield United W

2.22

allows per match

Durham W

1.40

Sheffield United W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durham W+0.00on par

Sheffield United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durham W ↓

Sheffield United W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Durham W or draw

60%

Durham W or Sheffield United W

78%

Draw or Sheffield United W

62%

Winning margin

Durham W wins by 2+

20%

Sheffield United W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Durham W 1+ goals

83%

Durham W 2+ goals

53%

Durham W 3+ goals

26%

Sheffield United W 1+ goals

84%

Sheffield United W 2+ goals

54%

Sheffield United W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Durham W (draw refunded)

49%

Sheffield United W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Durham W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Sheffield United W away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Durham W attack 1.20 + Sheffield United W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sheffield United W attack 2.22 + Durham W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Durham W scores more

38%

level

22%

Sheffield United W scores more

40%

Sheffield United W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff