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Durham W vs Manchester City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Durham W
Durham W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Manchester City W
Manchester City W
1/14/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundMaiden Castle Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Durham W10%
×Draw14%
Manchester City W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durham W
0.88
Manchester City W
2.75

Manchester City W creates 213% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Durham W
1.20
Manchester City W
4.09

allows per match

Durham W
1.40
Manchester City W
0.55

finishing

Durham W+0.00on par
Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durham W ↓

Manchester City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Durham W or draw
24%
Durham W or Manchester City W
86%
Draw or Manchester City W
90%

Winning margin

Durham W wins by 2+
3%
Manchester City W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Durham W 1+ goals
59%
Durham W 2+ goals
22%
Durham W 3+ goals
6%
Manchester City W 1+ goals
93%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
75%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Durham W (draw refunded)
11%
Manchester City W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durham W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 4.09, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durham W attack 1.20 + Manchester City W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.88

Manchester City W attack 4.09 + Durham W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Durham W scores more
10%
level
14%
Manchester City W scores more
76%

Manchester City W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Durham W 0–4 Manchester City W

Manchester City W beat Durham W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Maiden Castle Sports Park in Durham, County Durham.