Durham W 3–1 Blackburn Rovers W: Result & Stats

Durham W

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Blackburn Rovers W

1/30/2022

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundMaiden Castle Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Durham W51%

×Draw20%

Blackburn Rovers W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Durham WExpected goals in this matchBlackburn Rovers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.76

Durham W

2.35

Blackburn Rovers W

1.76

Durham W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

2.13

1.40

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Durham W

1.20

Blackburn Rovers W

2.13

allows per match

Durham W

1.40

Blackburn Rovers W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durham W+0.00on par

Blackburn Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durham W ↓

Blackburn Rovers W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Durham W or draw

71%

Durham W or Blackburn Rovers W

80%

Draw or Blackburn Rovers W

49%

Winning margin

Durham W wins by 2+

31%

Blackburn Rovers W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Durham W 1+ goals

90%

Durham W 2+ goals

68%

Durham W 3+ goals

41%

Blackburn Rovers W 1+ goals

83%

Blackburn Rovers W 2+ goals

52%

Blackburn Rovers W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Durham W (draw refunded)

64%

Blackburn Rovers W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Durham W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Blackburn Rovers W away — creates 2.13, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Durham W attack 1.20 + Blackburn Rovers W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Blackburn Rovers W attack 2.13 + Durham W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Durham W scores more

51%

level

20%

Blackburn Rovers W scores more

29%

Durham W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Durham W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff