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Durham Cestria W vs Chester-le-Street Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Durham Cestria W
Durham Cestria W
FT
1 – 3
Chester-le-Street Town W
Chester-le-Street Town W
11/10/2019FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMaiden Castle Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Durham Cestria W75%
×Draw14%
Chester-le-Street Town W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durham Cestria W
3.17
Chester-le-Street Town W
1.20

Durham Cestria W creates 164% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Durham Cestria W
4.75
Chester-le-Street Town W
1.40

allows per match

Durham Cestria W
1.00
Chester-le-Street Town W
1.60

finishing

Durham Cestria W+0.00on par
Chester-le-Street Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durham Cestria W ↓

Chester-le-Street Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Durham Cestria W or draw
89%
Durham Cestria W or Chester-le-Street Town W
86%
Draw or Chester-le-Street Town W
25%

Winning margin

Durham Cestria W wins by 2+
56%
Chester-le-Street Town W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Durham Cestria W 1+ goals
96%
Durham Cestria W 2+ goals
82%
Durham Cestria W 3+ goals
60%
Chester-le-Street Town W 1+ goals
70%
Chester-le-Street Town W 2+ goals
34%
Chester-le-Street Town W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Durham Cestria W (draw refunded)
87%
Chester-le-Street Town W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durham Cestria W at home — creates 4.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Chester-le-Street Town W away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durham Cestria W attack 4.75 + Chester-le-Street Town W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 3.17

Chester-le-Street Town W attack 1.40 + Durham Cestria W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Durham Cestria W scores more
75%
level
14%
Chester-le-Street Town W scores more
11%

Durham Cestria W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Durham Cestria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Durham Cestria W vs Chester-le-Street Town W

Chester-le-Street Town W beat Durham Cestria W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Maiden Castle Sports Park in Durham, County Durham.