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Düren Merzenich vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
FT
7 – 0
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
8/22/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3Westkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Düren Merzenich81%
×Draw11%
Wesseling-Urfeld8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Düren Merzenich
3.50
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.06

Düren Merzenich creates 230% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Düren Merzenich
2.94
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

Düren Merzenich
1.12
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Düren Merzenich ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Düren Merzenich or draw
92%
Düren Merzenich or Wesseling-Urfeld
89%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
19%

Winning margin

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
64%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
97%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
85%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
66%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
65%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
29%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
91%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Düren Merzenich at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Düren Merzenich attack 2.94 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.50

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Düren Merzenich scores more
81%
level
11%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
8%

Düren Merzenich at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Düren Merzenich vs Wesseling-Urfeld

Düren Merzenich beat Wesseling-Urfeld 7-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Westkampfbahn in Düren.