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Düren Merzenich vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
FT
5 – 2
Hürth
Hürth
10/24/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Westkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Düren Merzenich63%
×Draw18%
Hürth18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Düren Merzenich
2.48
Hürth
1.27

Düren Merzenich creates 95% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Düren Merzenich
2.94
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Düren Merzenich
1.12
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Düren Merzenich ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Düren Merzenich or draw
82%
Düren Merzenich or Hürth
82%
Draw or Hürth
37%

Winning margin

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
42%
Hürth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
92%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
70%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
44%
Hürth 1+ goals
72%
Hürth 2+ goals
36%
Hürth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
78%
Hürth (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Düren Merzenich at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Düren Merzenich attack 2.94 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.48

Hürth attack 1.41 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Düren Merzenich scores more
63%
level
18%
Hürth scores more
18%

Düren Merzenich at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Düren Merzenich vs Hürth

Düren Merzenich beat Hürth 5-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Westkampfbahn in Düren.