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Düren Merzenich vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
CANC
13:00
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
4/11/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23Westkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Düren Merzenich68%
×Draw17%
Friesdorf15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Düren Merzenich
2.72
Friesdorf
1.24

Düren Merzenich creates 119% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Düren Merzenich
2.94
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Düren Merzenich
1.12
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Düren Merzenich ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Düren Merzenich or draw
85%
Düren Merzenich or Friesdorf
83%
Draw or Friesdorf
32%

Winning margin

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
47%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
93%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
75%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
50%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
71%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
35%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
82%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Düren Merzenich at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Düren Merzenich attack 2.94 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.72

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Düren Merzenich scores more
68%
level
17%
Friesdorf scores more
15%

Düren Merzenich at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Düren Merzenich vs Friesdorf — Match Preview

Düren Merzenich face Friesdorf on April 11, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Düren Merzenich host Friesdorf at Westkampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.