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Durango vs Tepatitlán — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Durango
Durango
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
1/18/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango45%
×Draw26%
Tepatitlán29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.50
Tepatitlán
1.16

Durango creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 107 away

creates per match

Durango
1.56
Tepatitlán
0.98

allows per match

Durango
1.33
Tepatitlán
1.44

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Tepatitlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Durango or draw
71%
Durango or Tepatitlán
74%
Draw or Tepatitlán
55%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
22%
Tepatitlán wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
78%
Durango 2+ goals
44%
Durango 3+ goals
19%
Tepatitlán 1+ goals
69%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
32%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
61%
Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Tepatitlán away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Tepatitlán defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tepatitlán attack 0.98 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Durango scores more
45%
level
26%
Tepatitlán scores more
29%

Durango at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Durango vs Tepatitlán

Tepatitlán beat Durango 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Zarco in Durango.