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Durango vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Durango
Durango
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Raya2
Raya2
9/15/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango43%
×Draw27%
Raya231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.39
Raya2
1.14

Durango creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Durango
1.56
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Durango
1.33
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Durango or draw
69%
Durango or Raya2
73%
Draw or Raya2
57%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
20%
Raya2 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
75%
Durango 2+ goals
40%
Durango 3+ goals
16%
Raya2 1+ goals
68%
Raya2 2+ goals
32%
Raya2 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
58%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Durango scores more
43%
level
27%
Raya2 scores more
31%

Durango at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Durango 3–1 Raya2

Durango beat Raya2 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Zarco in Durango.