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Durango vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Durango
Durango
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
8/18/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango44%
×Draw26%
Leones Negros UDG30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.49
Leones Negros UDG
1.19

Durango creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 134 away

creates per match

Durango
1.56
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Durango
1.33
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Durango or draw
70%
Durango or Leones Negros UDG
74%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
56%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
22%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
77%
Durango 2+ goals
44%
Durango 3+ goals
19%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
70%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
33%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
59%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Durango scores more
44%
level
26%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
30%

Durango at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Durango 1–0 Leones Negros UDG

Durango beat Leones Negros UDG 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Zarco in Durango.