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Durango vs Dorados — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Durango
Durango
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dorados
Dorados
3/7/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango49%
×Draw24%
Dorados26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.68
Dorados
1.16

Durango creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 122 away

creates per match

Durango
1.56
Dorados
0.98

allows per match

Durango
1.33
Dorados
1.80

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Dorados+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Dorados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Durango or draw
74%
Durango or Dorados
76%
Draw or Dorados
51%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
26%
Dorados wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
81%
Durango 2+ goals
50%
Durango 3+ goals
24%
Dorados 1+ goals
69%
Dorados 2+ goals
32%
Dorados 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
65%
Dorados (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Dorados away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.80 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Dorados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Dorados attack 0.98 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Durango scores more
49%
level
24%
Dorados scores more
26%

Durango at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Durango vs Dorados

Durango beat Dorados 3-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Zarco in Durango.