Durango 1–1 Celaya: Result & Stats

Durango

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Celaya

9/26/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Francisco Zarco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Durango39%

×Draw26%

Celaya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DurangoExpected goals in this matchCelaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.24

Durango

1.34

Celaya

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 119 away

1.56

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Durango

1.56

Celaya

1.15

allows per match

Durango

1.33

Celaya

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durango+0.00on par

Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Celaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Durango or draw

66%

Durango or Celaya

74%

Draw or Celaya

61%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+

18%

Celaya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals

74%

Durango 2+ goals

39%

Durango 3+ goals

15%

Celaya 1+ goals

71%

Celaya 2+ goals

35%

Celaya 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)

53%

Celaya (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.56 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Celaya attack 1.15 + Durango defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Durango scores more

39%

level

26%

Celaya scores more

34%

Durango at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff