Durango 1–1 Balmaseda: Result & Stats

Durango

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Balmaseda

4/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Durango45%

×Draw29%

Balmaseda27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DurangoExpected goals in this matchBalmaseda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.90

Durango

1.26

Balmaseda

0.90

Durango creates 40% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 30 away

1.39

creates per match

0.87

0.92

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Durango

1.39

Balmaseda

0.87

allows per match

Durango

0.92

Balmaseda

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durango+0.00on par

Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Balmaseda →

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Durango or draw

73%

Durango or Balmaseda

71%

Draw or Balmaseda

55%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+

20%

Balmaseda wins by 2+

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals

72%

Durango 2+ goals

36%

Durango 3+ goals

13%

Balmaseda 1+ goals

59%

Balmaseda 2+ goals

23%

Balmaseda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)

63%

Balmaseda (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Durango scores more

45%

level

29%

Balmaseda scores more

27%

Durango at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff