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Durango vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Durango
Durango
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
2/28/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Durango54%
×Draw25%
Aurrerá Vitoria20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.58
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.86

Durango creates 84% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 32 away

creates per match

Durango
1.39
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Durango
0.92
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Durango or draw
80%
Durango or Aurrerá Vitoria
75%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
46%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
29%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
79%
Durango 2+ goals
47%
Durango 3+ goals
21%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
58%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
21%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
73%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Durango scores more
54%
level
25%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
20%

Durango at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Durango 1–2 Aurrerá Vitoria

Aurrerá Vitoria beat Durango 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Tabira in Durango.