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Durango vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Durango
Durango
FT
9 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
2/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Durango63%
×Draw22%
Ariznabarra14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.81
Ariznabarra
0.72

Durango creates 151% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 29 away

creates per match

Durango
1.39
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

Durango
0.92
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Durango or draw
86%
Durango or Ariznabarra
78%
Draw or Ariznabarra
37%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
37%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
84%
Durango 2+ goals
54%
Durango 3+ goals
27%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
51%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
16%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
82%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Durango scores more
63%
level
22%
Ariznabarra scores more
14%

Durango at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Durango 9–0 Ariznabarra

Durango beat Ariznabarra 9-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Tabira in Durango.