Durango 3–1 Aretxabaleta: Result & Stats

Durango

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aretxabaleta

4/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Durango50%

×Draw26%

Aretxabaleta25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DurangoExpected goals in this matchAretxabaleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.01

Durango

1.55

Aretxabaleta

1.01

Durango creates 53% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 34 away

1.39

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Durango

1.39

Aretxabaleta

1.09

allows per match

Durango

0.92

Aretxabaleta

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durango+0.00on par

Aretxabaleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Aretxabaleta →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Durango or draw

75%

Durango or Aretxabaleta

74%

Draw or Aretxabaleta

50%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+

26%

Aretxabaleta wins by 2+

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals

79%

Durango 2+ goals

46%

Durango 3+ goals

20%

Aretxabaleta 1+ goals

64%

Aretxabaleta 2+ goals

27%

Aretxabaleta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)

67%

Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

Aretxabaleta away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Aretxabaleta attack 1.09 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Durango scores more

50%

level

26%

Aretxabaleta scores more

25%

Durango at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff