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Durango vs Amurrio Club — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Durango
Durango
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
3/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Durango48%
×Draw28%
Amurrio Club24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
1.35
Amurrio Club
0.88

Durango creates 53% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 19 away

creates per match

Durango
1.39
Amurrio Club
0.84

allows per match

Durango
0.92
Amurrio Club
1.32

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

Amurrio Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Durango or draw
76%
Durango or Amurrio Club
72%
Draw or Amurrio Club
52%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
23%
Amurrio Club wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
74%
Durango 2+ goals
39%
Durango 3+ goals
15%
Amurrio Club 1+ goals
59%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
22%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
66%
Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

Amurrio Club away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + Amurrio Club defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Amurrio Club attack 0.84 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Durango scores more
48%
level
28%
Amurrio Club scores more
24%

Durango at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Durango 1–0 Amurrio Club

Durango beat Amurrio Club 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Tabira in Durango.