Dunkerque 2–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

Dunkerque

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Standard Liege

V. Mayela 34'

T. Robinet 30'

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dunkerque27%

×Draw23%

Standard Liege50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.84

Dunkerque

1.31

Standard Liege

1.84

Standard Liege creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

2.44

1.25

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.50

Standard Liege

2.44

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.25

Standard Liege

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Standard Liege →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

50%

Dunkerque or Standard Liege

77%

Draw or Standard Liege

73%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

12%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

73%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

38%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

14%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

84%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

55%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

35%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.50 + Standard Liege defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Standard Liege attack 2.44 + Dunkerque defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunkerque scores more

27%

level

23%

Standard Liege scores more

50%

Standard Liege at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

T. Robinet

34'

V. Mayela

83'

84'

Dunkerque

Standard

⚽

Manager: Albert Sanchez

Dunkerque substitutes

22Mayela

Manager: Vincent Euvrard